* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/03/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 43 49 53 56 56 57 64 66 67 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 43 49 53 56 56 57 64 66 67 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 40 42 47 49 49 48 47 51 58 66 SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 12 14 24 21 25 21 20 5 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 0 1 3 1 2 5 0 1 0 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 320 314 296 286 269 262 269 262 242 251 55 3 1 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 154 150 148 147 147 148 149 150 146 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 166 158 159 158 153 146 138 133 132 133 130 121 118 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 62 63 62 60 61 59 57 57 59 56 57 57 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 28 26 20 -6 -25 -52 -62 -73 -27 -36 -22 200 MB DIV 7 14 27 52 47 37 31 11 25 24 41 26 12 LAND (KM) 1061 921 822 787 580 283 388 422 543 722 839 701 654 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.1 16.7 17.5 18.3 20.2 22.0 23.3 24.6 26.3 28.5 29.7 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 52.4 54.4 56.4 58.3 60.2 63.9 66.7 68.6 69.7 70.7 71.6 72.1 72.3 STM SPEED (KT) 26 20 20 20 20 17 14 9 9 10 9 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 74 82 87 79 63 56 55 37 41 47 30 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 30 CX,CY: -28/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 896 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 18. 21. 21. 22. 29. 31. 32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/03/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/03/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/03/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)