* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ONE CP862010 08/03/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 32 30 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 47 51 52 53 50 53 59 58 63 58 63 60 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -5 -3 -1 -1 -6 -3 -7 -2 -11 -9 -8 SHEAR DIR 214 213 213 214 219 229 246 248 250 250 261 262 268 SST (C) 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 109 111 112 113 115 117 118 120 121 123 125 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 16 14 13 11 11 11 15 16 18 20 20 22 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 35 37 33 31 25 21 11 -12 -37 -55 -58 -46 200 MB DIV 40 34 25 18 17 0 1 -16 -17 -7 -13 -23 -10 LAND (KM) 680 587 497 416 350 269 244 278 319 402 504 570 618 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.7 21.1 22.1 23.1 24.1 25.0 25.8 26.5 26.8 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 148.3 149.2 150.1 151.0 151.9 153.8 155.6 157.2 158.6 160.0 161.2 162.1 163.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 1.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -19. -31. -46. -58. -68. -74. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -10. -14. -15. -16. -17. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -11. -22. -34. -46. -55. -62. -67. -69. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP862010 ONE 08/03/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 47.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP862010 ONE 08/03/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY