* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/04/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 31 36 40 44 47 51 57 61 63 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 31 36 40 44 47 51 57 61 63 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 29 29 30 31 32 33 36 42 50 59 SHEAR (KT) 11 14 18 17 16 20 24 19 18 5 6 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 3 0 1 0 6 -2 3 -4 2 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 285 288 276 277 270 276 254 271 234 165 131 37 304 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 152 149 148 146 146 149 148 150 149 146 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 163 154 148 145 139 136 135 132 131 127 121 117 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 59 56 53 54 58 57 56 55 53 52 57 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 6 6 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 38 32 24 16 7 -11 -31 -68 -58 -46 -9 -35 -39 200 MB DIV 4 11 23 35 37 31 35 15 14 24 22 24 11 LAND (KM) 914 829 720 554 407 300 435 530 692 833 742 626 574 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.6 19.4 21.0 22.8 24.4 26.0 27.5 28.9 29.9 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 54.7 56.8 58.9 60.5 62.0 64.9 67.3 69.0 70.3 71.5 72.8 73.2 73.1 STM SPEED (KT) 25 21 19 17 16 15 13 11 10 9 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 81 85 78 60 63 45 49 40 43 43 21 21 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 28 CX,CY: -25/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 1. 6. 10. 14. 17. 21. 27. 31. 33. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/04/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/04/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/04/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)