* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 08/04/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 50 57 61 64 69 72 74 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 50 57 61 64 50 36 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 43 50 58 65 53 36 46 SHEAR (KT) 0 4 7 10 8 12 11 13 15 19 11 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 0 -5 0 -1 -4 -6 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 112 237 278 313 307 302 286 293 268 304 297 323 295 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.2 28.6 28.6 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 152 153 155 158 158 155 160 155 145 146 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 152 153 155 156 157 155 149 151 145 136 135 138 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 11 11 10 12 11 12 10 12 10 13 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 63 62 64 63 60 63 63 62 62 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 43 54 59 64 68 39 32 10 11 4 6 4 6 200 MB DIV 13 -4 3 19 19 25 27 2 18 0 15 6 10 LAND (KM) 183 190 191 301 335 191 224 325 322 126 -90 -4 224 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.1 16.0 17.0 18.1 18.9 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 69.1 70.6 72.0 73.4 74.8 77.5 80.0 82.3 84.2 86.2 88.2 90.3 92.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 14 13 13 11 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 66 57 64 66 86 112 119 96 107 85 74 2 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 25. 32. 36. 39. 44. 47. 49. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 08/04/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 08/04/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 08/04/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)