* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 08/04/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 39 47 54 58 63 67 69 71 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 39 47 54 58 41 41 43 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 45 53 40 40 48 58 SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 9 11 9 6 5 7 2 8 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -4 -2 -6 0 -3 -3 3 -6 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 217 256 251 202 220 272 264 251 263 322 258 299 278 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 155 157 158 158 156 161 154 146 146 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 157 157 157 159 155 151 154 146 137 136 141 140 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 13 12 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 62 63 66 66 66 65 67 63 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 60 71 73 66 49 33 26 9 4 18 4 0 -12 200 MB DIV 34 18 41 28 16 30 9 15 5 7 30 16 21 LAND (KM) 203 250 334 276 213 207 322 318 97 -116 83 333 233 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.8 17.8 18.7 19.5 20.3 21.1 22.1 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 71.0 72.6 74.1 75.5 76.9 79.6 82.0 84.3 86.5 88.8 91.1 93.3 95.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 14 13 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 63 65 81 91 106 115 95 109 83 22 6 50 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -9. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 39. 42. 44. 46. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 08/04/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 81.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 08/04/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 08/04/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)