* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/04/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 40 47 48 52 57 60 66 71 75 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 40 47 48 52 57 60 66 71 75 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 40 43 48 56 63 SHEAR (KT) 19 17 16 17 17 18 18 17 10 16 11 8 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 4 7 6 2 5 4 2 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 273 287 274 278 291 271 268 238 220 184 181 152 135 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 147 147 147 145 145 146 147 149 149 147 141 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 145 143 141 136 132 130 129 129 128 124 119 113 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 12 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 53 54 52 54 49 51 52 54 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 12 11 13 16 13 12 15 14 15 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 28 18 19 5 -3 -25 -44 -41 -30 -21 9 17 -43 200 MB DIV 24 42 76 55 43 23 6 21 23 12 44 18 -4 LAND (KM) 657 507 377 305 294 444 503 622 756 929 1005 902 790 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.6 19.4 20.2 20.9 22.5 23.7 25.1 26.4 27.9 29.2 30.6 31.9 LONG(DEG W) 59.5 60.9 62.3 63.6 64.8 66.5 67.6 68.3 68.6 68.1 68.1 68.1 68.5 STM SPEED (KT) 20 15 15 14 12 10 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 73 61 63 56 46 50 41 43 42 29 16 12 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 24 CX,CY: -22/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 849 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 2. 1. 3. 2. 3. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 17. 18. 22. 27. 30. 36. 41. 45. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/04/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 59.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/04/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/04/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)