* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 08/04/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 52 59 64 68 72 75 75 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 52 59 64 41 40 43 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 52 62 41 42 51 61 SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 6 3 10 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -2 -4 0 -4 -2 -3 2 -4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 277 251 191 199 260 262 288 257 330 280 310 270 304 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.0 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 157 156 158 158 155 161 152 147 149 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 154 158 157 156 155 149 153 145 138 140 141 139 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 11 10 12 10 12 10 12 9 14 11 700-500 MB RH 66 66 62 64 66 64 65 68 65 66 64 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 70 74 69 54 38 33 15 17 5 8 0 -12 -14 200 MB DIV 18 40 29 16 10 20 -2 20 8 16 4 12 8 LAND (KM) 207 333 325 256 213 265 273 290 60 -134 107 345 218 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.9 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.0 20.8 21.9 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 72.5 73.9 75.3 76.7 78.0 80.4 82.7 84.7 86.9 89.2 91.4 93.5 95.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 61 68 85 100 109 81 96 106 74 23 3 49 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 31. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 27. 34. 39. 43. 47. 50. 50. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 08/04/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 08/04/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 08/04/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)