* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992010 08/04/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 26 33 43 52 59 63 64 65 64 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 26 33 43 52 59 63 64 65 64 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 32 38 45 54 61 64 63 SHEAR (KT) 1 3 5 6 6 8 2 1 3 6 10 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 287 37 30 29 46 21 21 57 137 116 154 143 130 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.7 27.8 26.8 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 159 158 158 159 160 158 156 151 141 132 127 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 7 10 8 10 8 10 6 6 3 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 72 73 72 74 72 73 71 69 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 12 19 33 36 32 36 47 59 71 63 63 50 200 MB DIV 16 0 23 35 30 24 17 37 29 53 22 35 32 LAND (KM) 114 95 69 84 100 126 127 144 140 186 276 425 574 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 17.8 17.9 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 94.5 95.5 96.4 97.3 98.1 99.5 100.9 102.3 103.8 105.3 107.0 108.8 110.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 44 38 21 39 42 36 38 28 7 9 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 26. 34. 40. 44. 46. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 13. 23. 32. 39. 43. 44. 45. 44. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992010 INVEST 08/04/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992010 INVEST 08/04/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY