* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/04/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 50 55 58 59 63 68 74 78 79 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 50 55 58 59 63 68 74 78 79 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 42 44 45 48 52 57 66 74 79 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 21 18 14 14 14 12 7 1 9 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 3 4 10 3 6 0 3 2 1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 282 267 279 290 279 269 250 252 188 180 80 63 39 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 146 145 146 147 146 146 147 147 147 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 140 138 136 132 130 128 126 124 124 124 124 122 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 52 54 53 54 51 51 47 48 48 45 45 42 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 13 12 14 14 16 15 13 15 17 19 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 13 13 -2 -11 -23 -45 -25 -39 -6 -5 -5 -67 -56 200 MB DIV 37 69 55 50 48 6 29 -2 34 15 39 -11 17 LAND (KM) 488 399 354 364 413 529 606 711 811 915 989 1048 917 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.5 22.2 23.4 24.6 25.6 26.5 27.4 28.2 28.9 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 61.2 62.4 63.6 64.6 65.6 66.6 67.3 67.2 67.0 66.7 67.0 67.6 68.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 13 12 12 10 7 6 5 5 4 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 57 58 50 37 43 41 47 48 39 33 30 22 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 23 CX,CY: -19/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 814 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 20. 23. 24. 29. 33. 39. 43. 44. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/04/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/04/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/04/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)