* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 08/04/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 39 47 57 64 69 74 77 80 81 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 39 47 57 64 58 37 42 46 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 33 40 49 60 63 38 47 57 67 SHEAR (KT) 1 5 6 3 3 3 2 5 4 8 6 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 0 -1 -4 1 -2 -1 2 0 1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 277 167 184 279 297 254 122 285 349 314 10 312 339 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 156 158 158 157 157 161 154 149 150 152 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 156 157 158 156 153 150 153 146 140 140 141 139 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 10 12 11 12 12 14 700-500 MB RH 67 64 66 65 66 66 66 65 66 66 65 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 71 69 58 39 36 27 11 1 -1 -8 -13 -1 -14 200 MB DIV 38 27 19 0 18 4 11 4 7 24 9 10 5 LAND (KM) 290 373 328 275 267 277 223 210 -30 -55 188 310 138 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.8 17.7 18.3 19.0 19.9 20.8 21.7 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 73.9 75.3 76.6 77.9 79.1 81.4 83.5 85.6 87.8 90.0 92.2 94.2 96.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 58 72 92 100 97 71 105 97 72 17 32 48 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 32. 39. 44. 49. 52. 55. 56. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 08/04/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 83.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 08/04/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 08/04/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)