* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972010 08/04/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 26 26 23 20 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 22 24 26 26 26 23 20 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 14 15 10 10 9 11 10 9 15 13 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 4 2 0 1 1 2 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 100 113 128 146 140 156 173 182 171 190 218 207 189 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.2 25.5 24.6 23.6 23.2 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 141 138 134 129 124 117 107 97 93 90 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 67 68 67 65 67 64 62 56 53 46 42 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 25 33 34 33 45 37 46 23 33 33 41 30 200 MB DIV 41 58 50 56 38 32 34 41 45 37 21 -2 6 LAND (KM) 669 707 752 793 816 801 803 821 859 872 915 988 1081 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.0 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.0 110.7 111.4 112.0 113.1 114.3 115.5 116.8 118.0 119.2 120.4 121.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 11 13 19 18 15 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 25. 24. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 3. 0. -4. -7. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972010 INVEST 08/04/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972010 INVEST 08/04/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY