* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992010 08/04/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 44 52 59 63 66 66 65 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 44 52 59 63 66 66 65 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 40 46 53 61 67 70 67 60 SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 5 6 6 2 2 6 4 9 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 -2 0 -2 -4 -1 -4 0 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 21 9 18 10 351 23 278 287 238 163 158 151 158 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.2 26.7 25.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 158 159 160 159 157 154 146 130 116 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 6 8 8 9 10 10 8 7 4 2 700-500 MB RH 68 69 71 74 72 74 72 69 69 70 63 63 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 15 33 34 31 34 37 66 64 81 45 53 30 200 MB DIV -2 13 43 39 27 38 30 29 31 34 1 10 20 LAND (KM) 116 92 96 93 105 96 76 49 73 139 279 345 397 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.3 16.0 16.8 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.8 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.5 97.3 98.1 98.8 100.2 101.5 103.0 104.6 106.3 108.2 110.2 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 37 23 32 40 36 35 37 26 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 25. 32. 37. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 34. 38. 41. 41. 40. 36. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992010 INVEST 08/04/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992010 INVEST 08/04/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED