* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/05/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 42 44 47 48 51 53 57 59 62 61 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 42 44 47 48 51 53 57 59 62 61 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 46 51 59 67 74 SHEAR (KT) 15 24 24 20 20 21 21 17 15 3 10 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 2 3 -1 5 -5 0 1 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 265 281 295 285 272 273 244 244 201 199 148 129 145 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 145 145 145 146 146 148 148 148 148 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 137 135 132 130 127 127 125 126 125 125 125 123 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 56 52 52 48 53 52 53 55 52 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -16 -17 -20 -34 -43 -34 -39 -28 -20 -6 -20 -46 200 MB DIV 60 42 36 69 46 7 6 9 8 11 2 1 -27 LAND (KM) 370 340 349 406 477 503 582 645 737 821 892 870 762 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.9 21.5 22.2 22.8 23.7 24.7 25.4 26.3 27.1 27.8 28.4 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 62.8 63.9 65.0 65.8 66.5 67.6 68.2 68.7 69.1 69.6 70.2 71.2 72.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 12 11 10 8 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 57 47 40 45 46 41 44 38 42 43 33 31 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 21 CX,CY: -17/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 16. 18. 22. 24. 27. 26. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/05/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/05/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/05/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)