* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992010 08/05/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 51 58 63 64 63 60 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 51 58 63 64 63 60 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 34 39 45 52 59 63 63 58 52 SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 4 7 2 1 2 3 8 13 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 337 17 6 2 5 348 247 221 95 125 135 155 160 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.5 27.2 25.8 25.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 159 159 160 158 155 149 135 121 113 113 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 9 8 11 9 11 7 7 3 1 700-500 MB RH 70 75 75 72 73 73 69 71 68 64 60 60 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 33 37 34 35 35 52 65 73 48 39 20 24 200 MB DIV 16 41 46 31 43 36 34 24 35 2 15 10 0 LAND (KM) 133 130 129 129 129 99 77 76 105 222 350 359 454 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.4 17.3 18.1 19.0 19.5 19.8 19.9 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 96.9 97.7 98.4 99.1 99.8 101.2 102.6 104.2 105.9 107.6 109.4 111.3 113.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 39 21 15 30 40 39 22 38 32 13 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 32. 36. 37. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 26. 33. 38. 39. 38. 35. 31. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992010 INVEST 08/05/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992010 INVEST 08/05/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY