* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/05/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 38 40 41 46 51 56 57 59 58 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 38 40 41 46 51 56 57 59 58 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 35 35 34 34 36 42 49 57 64 69 SHEAR (KT) 27 32 25 22 25 17 10 5 4 6 5 7 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 6 2 2 -2 0 -2 3 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 273 276 280 266 261 251 249 130 234 103 255 277 291 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 147 148 147 149 149 146 140 134 132 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 136 133 132 132 129 128 127 123 117 111 109 107 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 56 53 55 55 60 59 57 52 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 6 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -44 -52 -71 -80 -70 -87 -34 -46 -16 -57 -56 -50 200 MB DIV 53 24 41 30 12 24 0 51 27 28 2 7 1 LAND (KM) 447 472 535 602 625 732 864 1013 908 774 684 677 831 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.5 23.3 24.0 24.6 26.0 27.3 28.7 30.0 31.5 32.8 34.1 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 63.4 64.5 65.5 66.2 66.9 67.8 68.1 68.3 68.6 69.0 69.2 68.7 66.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 42 36 40 43 47 44 34 18 12 13 14 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 16 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 11. 16. 21. 22. 24. 23. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/05/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/05/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/05/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)