* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992010 08/05/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 50 58 63 63 59 55 53 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 50 58 63 63 59 55 53 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 39 46 51 53 52 48 44 40 SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 6 8 6 8 8 13 16 16 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 2 5 2 SHEAR DIR 37 61 95 57 73 162 157 164 145 160 156 165 165 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.4 27.6 26.7 26.0 25.7 25.5 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 158 158 156 148 139 130 122 120 118 110 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 8 9 8 8 6 5 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 75 77 75 75 76 76 74 70 72 67 62 56 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 34 32 32 33 31 54 47 53 33 43 30 43 200 MB DIV 35 37 39 45 36 46 58 46 55 46 28 22 10 LAND (KM) 195 218 241 248 256 257 280 332 421 490 470 537 622 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 15.0 15.3 16.1 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.1 19.6 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.8 100.5 101.4 102.2 104.2 106.0 107.5 108.9 110.4 112.0 113.8 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 8 9 9 10 9 7 7 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 19 24 42 45 40 25 6 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 341 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 23. 29. 31. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 33. 38. 38. 34. 30. 28. 24. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992010 INVEST 08/05/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 62% is 5.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992010 INVEST 08/05/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED