* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/05/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 37 37 38 43 47 48 51 53 51 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 37 37 38 43 47 48 51 53 51 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 35 34 34 33 33 35 40 46 51 55 58 SHEAR (KT) 29 21 23 28 26 19 7 6 8 16 11 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 6 4 1 4 -2 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 280 271 258 261 263 239 224 157 104 105 109 89 13 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 147 147 148 148 150 148 145 142 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 131 130 129 127 127 126 127 125 122 117 113 112 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 52 52 52 52 53 52 54 53 56 56 51 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 5 6 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -63 -71 -79 -74 -78 -59 -36 -25 -27 -52 -76 -78 200 MB DIV 16 44 47 11 -2 17 21 18 35 13 -7 -29 -25 LAND (KM) 510 567 616 628 648 734 823 938 914 795 656 561 504 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.6 24.2 24.7 25.1 26.1 27.0 28.1 29.1 30.2 31.3 32.1 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 65.0 65.7 66.4 67.0 67.5 68.1 68.5 68.9 69.5 70.0 70.8 71.3 71.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 39 42 44 47 50 43 39 26 14 11 14 25 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 18 CX,CY: -12/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 8. 12. 13. 16. 18. 16. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/05/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/05/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/05/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)