* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/05/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 38 42 46 50 51 52 53 55 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 38 42 46 50 51 52 53 55 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 34 33 33 35 40 46 52 56 59 61 SHEAR (KT) 23 25 22 19 19 11 4 5 9 15 17 21 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 7 2 1 -3 -1 -3 -3 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 267 259 265 266 252 244 181 316 330 307 303 305 315 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 147 147 149 148 147 143 137 134 136 136 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 129 129 128 128 126 125 120 116 112 113 115 112 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 12 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 51 51 54 60 59 58 55 57 57 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 9 10 9 7 7 5 5 5 5 7 10 850 MB ENV VOR -80 -90 -91 -89 -83 -78 -37 -53 -20 -42 -54 -47 25 200 MB DIV 40 51 26 17 23 16 46 34 37 15 36 28 67 LAND (KM) 655 700 738 785 836 946 997 865 722 608 614 651 683 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.1 25.7 26.3 26.9 28.0 29.3 30.6 32.1 33.8 35.4 36.5 37.6 LONG(DEG W) 65.8 66.3 66.8 67.2 67.5 67.8 68.1 68.6 69.2 69.6 69.1 66.9 63.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 13 16 HEAT CONTENT 48 50 48 42 38 31 18 14 15 17 29 30 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 17 CX,CY: -10/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 828 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 16. 17. 18. 20. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/05/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/05/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/05/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)