* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/06/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 52 53 55 57 58 57 54 50 47 41 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 52 53 55 57 58 57 54 50 47 41 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 54 54 54 54 57 60 61 59 56 53 49 SHEAR (KT) 25 25 22 14 12 7 8 24 26 22 21 34 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 4 7 5 -4 -2 -5 -3 -3 -2 -1 -7 SHEAR DIR 262 256 253 257 259 324 303 291 289 294 277 254 280 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.3 27.8 26.2 24.5 13.5 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 149 149 147 143 136 129 135 117 106 76 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 130 129 128 126 123 117 110 113 99 95 74 73 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.2 -53.8 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 12 9 9 6 6 4 5 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 51 54 53 56 62 62 64 52 52 55 68 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 11 11 10 10 8 9 7 7 6 9 12 850 MB ENV VOR -98 -96 -87 -82 -92 -51 -62 -49 -77 -89 -44 9 23 200 MB DIV 42 42 33 42 19 44 33 33 24 36 48 55 43 LAND (KM) 752 820 894 969 1045 1007 960 905 731 551 497 128 844 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.5 27.3 28.0 28.7 30.3 32.2 34.7 37.0 39.2 40.9 45.6 52.2 LONG(DEG W) 66.3 66.7 67.0 67.0 66.9 67.0 66.3 65.1 64.1 62.2 59.5 52.6 42.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 7 7 9 12 13 12 13 24 41 46 HEAT CONTENT 45 36 35 33 27 11 1 13 31 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 14 CX,CY: -5/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 785 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. -4. -5. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 0. -3. -9. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/06/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/06/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/06/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)