* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/06/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 40 46 51 57 57 56 56 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 40 46 51 57 57 56 56 53 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 40 43 45 47 49 51 54 SHEAR (KT) 10 12 8 4 4 8 14 13 11 14 13 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 2 3 1 0 0 -6 0 -4 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 61 50 62 110 164 183 195 215 216 240 239 249 256 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 127 125 124 125 129 130 130 130 132 131 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 124 121 119 119 119 123 123 120 118 117 114 113 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.2 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 72 71 68 63 60 55 53 51 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 9 9 9 9 10 8 8 8 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 28 27 26 30 30 19 25 15 -3 -17 -16 -20 -20 200 MB DIV 113 98 91 116 106 77 65 12 12 0 -1 6 17 LAND (KM) 1794 1854 1915 1938 1937 1923 1940 1945 1991 1925 1801 1723 1706 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.9 18.7 20.3 21.8 23.1 24.2 25.1 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 35.8 36.2 36.6 37.2 37.8 39.5 41.5 43.8 45.9 47.9 49.5 50.7 51.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 10 12 13 13 12 10 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 13 9 8 8 11 15 25 20 19 20 17 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 21. 26. 32. 32. 31. 31. 28. 27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/06/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 5.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/06/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/06/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)