* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072010 08/06/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 50 55 57 55 51 46 41 33 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 50 55 57 55 51 46 41 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 41 47 51 51 48 44 39 33 28 SHEAR (KT) 4 4 2 3 6 5 6 8 9 12 17 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 0 -3 -3 -1 -1 1 2 2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 26 73 133 182 139 213 198 186 166 148 156 164 170 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.1 27.0 25.8 25.0 25.0 24.4 23.2 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 156 153 145 133 121 113 112 106 94 80 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 11 7 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 77 77 75 72 75 72 66 61 57 50 44 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 55 53 56 61 58 66 42 59 60 60 49 33 200 MB DIV 39 54 55 55 62 28 25 33 33 22 16 9 21 LAND (KM) 182 198 182 179 191 214 305 391 363 454 528 625 733 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.2 18.0 18.7 19.4 19.9 20.2 20.8 21.2 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 101.7 102.5 103.2 104.0 104.8 106.4 108.0 109.6 111.4 113.3 115.1 117.0 118.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 45 41 35 29 21 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 21. 22. 22. 20. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 25. 27. 25. 21. 16. 11. 3. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 SEVEN 08/06/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 SEVEN 08/06/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED