* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072010 08/06/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 40 46 48 49 47 41 36 31 25 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 40 46 48 49 47 41 36 31 25 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 37 41 42 42 39 34 29 24 20 SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 7 7 6 6 10 14 14 19 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -1 2 1 2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 66 88 107 112 123 112 119 104 131 131 150 138 133 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.3 26.2 25.5 25.0 24.6 24.3 23.9 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 155 152 148 136 124 116 111 107 104 99 94 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 8 7 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 72 74 72 69 65 65 60 59 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 48 49 54 48 51 30 51 32 45 35 46 200 MB DIV 46 57 47 58 51 32 19 22 23 3 18 28 27 LAND (KM) 211 199 220 245 255 332 407 390 359 372 440 454 476 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.0 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.6 104.4 105.3 106.1 107.8 109.2 110.3 111.3 112.4 113.7 114.6 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 41 34 28 24 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 19. 19. 19. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 6. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 18. 19. 17. 11. 6. 1. -5. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 SEVEN 08/06/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 SEVEN 08/06/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY