* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/06/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 36 36 37 41 45 48 46 43 41 38 33 V (KT) LAND 40 37 36 36 37 41 45 48 46 43 41 38 33 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 35 35 35 38 42 44 45 43 41 39 39 SHEAR (KT) 21 10 11 6 4 15 27 30 25 33 42 53 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 -1 -3 -1 -2 -6 -6 -2 -2 -4 -10 -5 SHEAR DIR 264 256 226 250 259 229 249 258 284 257 255 251 263 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.2 27.3 25.6 22.0 13.7 10.3 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 148 145 142 136 128 129 112 90 72 69 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 130 128 125 122 117 110 110 97 81 69 68 68 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 9 9 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 54 55 58 60 56 54 48 51 59 70 72 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 9 10 13 850 MB ENV VOR -89 -82 -85 -69 -42 -54 -52 -86 -96 -38 29 37 30 200 MB DIV 21 38 35 34 60 47 28 30 20 57 61 62 40 LAND (KM) 849 945 1042 1070 1026 999 937 736 583 432 145 403 910 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.8 28.7 29.6 30.5 32.3 34.7 37.2 39.6 42.3 45.4 48.7 52.0 LONG(DEG W) 67.1 67.1 67.0 66.8 66.6 65.8 64.4 62.8 60.8 57.6 52.9 47.5 41.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 11 14 14 16 20 24 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 37 33 27 16 7 4 13 17 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -3. 1. 5. 8. 6. 3. 1. -2. -6. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/06/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/06/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/06/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)