* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/06/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 38 42 46 46 46 46 45 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 38 42 46 46 46 46 45 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 32 34 36 38 40 42 45 48 SHEAR (KT) 1 7 9 10 11 15 16 20 20 18 17 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 1 -2 -2 0 0 -2 1 -2 -1 -2 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 177 94 143 189 207 205 209 200 212 206 222 212 221 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 123 123 126 128 130 131 131 133 135 136 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 118 118 119 121 123 122 120 118 117 118 117 116 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 74 72 71 72 62 52 47 51 50 48 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 9 8 9 7 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 15 19 29 23 19 15 -1 -6 -16 -8 -17 -19 -28 200 MB DIV 63 73 73 66 41 42 18 20 -11 -3 12 12 14 LAND (KM) 1900 2007 2073 2039 2017 1991 1988 1976 1813 1692 1590 1533 1510 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.9 16.6 17.4 18.1 19.8 21.3 22.7 23.7 24.6 25.2 25.8 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 36.2 37.2 38.4 39.6 42.2 44.9 47.2 49.2 50.8 52.2 53.2 53.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 15 14 11 10 8 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 8 10 12 18 21 19 20 19 20 21 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 21. 21. 21. 21. 20. 18. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/06/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/06/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/06/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)