* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072010 08/06/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 49 50 48 43 37 32 28 23 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 49 50 48 43 37 32 28 23 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 35 38 38 37 34 30 25 22 19 SHEAR (KT) 9 9 4 6 5 9 10 14 17 23 25 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -2 -1 -2 -4 0 -2 -1 -3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 104 110 135 130 136 123 127 129 139 135 133 121 111 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.8 26.8 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.7 24.8 24.5 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 151 147 142 131 120 113 108 107 108 106 99 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 7 5 4 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 75 72 72 71 68 68 63 65 66 69 68 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 46 47 48 56 48 57 32 34 35 39 37 29 30 200 MB DIV 39 34 49 43 43 51 17 20 25 16 22 32 15 LAND (KM) 197 218 252 263 291 374 433 381 353 386 439 499 523 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.2 20.4 20.4 20.7 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 103.6 104.5 105.3 106.2 107.0 108.5 109.9 111.0 111.8 112.6 113.3 114.3 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 4 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 34 24 24 15 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 416 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 20. 19. 13. 7. 2. -2. -7. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 SEVEN 08/06/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 SEVEN 08/06/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY