* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/06/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 46 49 53 53 49 45 42 39 34 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 46 49 53 53 49 45 42 39 34 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 42 44 48 51 52 50 46 42 41 43 SHEAR (KT) 13 12 5 6 8 16 23 30 25 35 40 42 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -2 -3 -2 -3 -3 -7 -1 -2 -5 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 271 249 248 254 222 262 265 279 276 267 250 234 231 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.2 26.3 24.5 16.6 12.0 12.8 10.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 145 143 138 131 128 119 104 75 70 72 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 125 123 119 113 110 102 91 71 68 69 68 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 9 8 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 53 57 60 58 50 49 47 53 64 65 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 9 8 6 7 9 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -98 -100 -81 -53 -52 -71 -79 -108 -122 -19 34 78 48 200 MB DIV 27 36 43 68 55 31 48 16 44 33 43 37 70 LAND (KM) 960 1058 1100 1064 1039 1034 847 653 512 314 289 708 1150 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.8 29.6 30.6 31.6 33.6 36.1 38.7 41.1 43.9 47.0 51.1 55.6 LONG(DEG W) 66.9 66.7 66.4 66.1 65.7 64.6 63.1 61.0 58.3 54.3 49.1 43.9 38.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 13 14 16 18 22 25 27 27 HEAT CONTENT 32 26 18 12 7 9 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 13. 9. 5. 2. -1. -6. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/06/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/06/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/06/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)