* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 08/06/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 56 65 71 77 79 82 81 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 29 28 36 46 35 29 28 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 29 31 29 27 34 42 34 29 27 27 34 SHEAR (KT) 4 2 4 7 9 7 11 10 8 11 16 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -1 0 3 2 2 5 4 8 4 3 SHEAR DIR 42 96 73 46 61 24 45 354 13 358 5 18 23 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 161 165 166 157 152 149 151 154 158 160 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 155 156 161 162 151 145 141 142 144 148 150 117 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -51.3 -50.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 8 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 10 8 700-500 MB RH 67 70 68 69 68 70 67 70 68 67 65 68 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 5 3 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 20 18 12 14 7 5 26 9 39 30 60 64 200 MB DIV 27 31 3 1 3 8 0 47 29 17 16 26 -1 LAND (KM) 49 84 130 31 -95 -33 70 50 -111 -284 -241 2 120 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.4 21.9 22.3 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 84.6 85.7 86.7 87.9 89.1 91.3 93.6 95.9 98.2 100.5 103.0 105.7 108.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 52 82 82 13 85 29 37 27 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 31. 40. 46. 52. 54. 57. 56. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 08/06/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 08/06/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 08/06/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)