* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/06/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 37 42 46 49 51 51 51 50 48 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 37 42 46 49 51 51 51 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 29 31 35 37 39 42 46 51 55 58 SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 11 13 21 17 12 11 15 14 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 0 0 -6 -2 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 101 123 173 195 184 214 196 205 187 216 222 239 223 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 123 125 126 128 129 130 132 134 136 137 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 118 120 121 121 120 119 118 118 118 118 118 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 73 70 72 68 63 57 53 52 50 50 50 50 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 21 30 23 22 17 10 -2 -12 -6 -9 -9 -13 -18 200 MB DIV 81 75 77 49 41 9 8 29 0 3 1 15 5 LAND (KM) 1986 2096 2074 2052 2038 2015 2025 1908 1749 1617 1518 1453 1409 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.8 17.5 18.4 19.2 20.7 22.1 23.2 24.1 24.6 25.2 25.6 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 36.0 37.1 38.1 39.4 40.7 43.2 45.8 48.1 50.0 51.6 53.0 54.0 54.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 14 13 11 9 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 9 11 11 22 17 19 21 22 23 23 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. 25. 23. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/06/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/06/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/06/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)