* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072010 08/06/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 46 49 53 53 51 45 38 32 27 23 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 46 49 53 53 51 45 38 32 27 23 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 45 46 45 41 37 32 28 24 21 SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 6 4 8 10 16 18 19 18 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -1 3 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 186 109 130 196 202 142 150 139 145 144 137 128 128 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.2 27.7 27.1 26.2 25.5 25.3 25.1 25.0 24.8 24.9 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 151 146 140 134 124 116 113 111 110 108 109 111 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 72 74 74 70 70 65 67 66 70 68 72 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 52 62 51 50 51 28 48 39 51 49 62 75 200 MB DIV 24 45 48 47 53 45 35 29 23 27 36 46 25 LAND (KM) 188 216 231 271 322 407 403 390 391 411 464 529 586 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.3 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.4 106.3 107.1 107.9 109.2 110.5 111.3 111.8 112.6 113.6 114.3 114.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 3 3 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 25 22 6 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 18. 18. 16. 10. 3. -3. -8. -12. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 SEVEN 08/06/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 SEVEN 08/06/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED