* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/07/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 45 49 52 53 51 47 44 39 30 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 45 49 52 53 51 47 44 39 30 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 43 44 48 52 52 49 44 41 40 41 SHEAR (KT) 13 9 6 4 9 18 21 23 35 40 52 52 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -3 -1 -2 -5 -2 -5 -3 -4 -9 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 241 254 271 262 253 279 268 283 259 260 249 244 233 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.4 27.3 25.7 21.2 13.1 11.1 10.8 11.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 143 140 137 130 130 114 88 72 70 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 124 122 119 116 111 112 100 80 69 68 68 67 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -54.3 -54.2 -52.8 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 57 60 60 57 54 47 50 57 65 70 72 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 9 9 9 9 10 13 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -96 -78 -44 -39 -58 -48 -84 -94 -80 -17 5 44 96 200 MB DIV 26 43 70 68 39 25 33 31 45 46 51 44 47 LAND (KM) 1054 1119 1094 1077 1068 1028 802 592 469 164 560 974 1226 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.5 30.3 31.1 31.9 33.8 36.5 39.5 42.5 45.8 49.3 53.6 58.3 LONG(DEG W) 66.6 66.3 65.9 65.6 65.2 64.3 63.2 60.8 56.6 51.4 45.4 41.2 38.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 12 16 20 24 26 26 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 26 19 15 11 8 8 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 13. 11. 7. 4. -1. -10. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/07/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/07/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/07/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)