* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP072010 08/07/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 58 59 57 52 45 38 33 28 24 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 58 59 57 52 45 38 33 28 24 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 53 55 57 56 52 47 41 36 32 28 25 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 2 7 10 12 16 16 19 21 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 1 3 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 110 141 191 185 116 149 151 157 140 130 129 125 130 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 139 133 129 122 118 116 116 116 118 118 117 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -51.3 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 7 6 4 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 73 72 71 68 70 70 73 74 76 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 60 55 51 55 40 45 50 57 56 82 92 112 200 MB DIV 51 45 38 54 53 31 37 11 26 39 44 52 37 LAND (KM) 250 272 316 357 397 473 441 439 455 482 515 548 583 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.6 107.4 108.1 108.7 109.8 110.8 111.5 112.1 112.6 113.0 113.5 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 25 20 7 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 402 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 12. 7. 0. -7. -12. -17. -21. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 ESTELLE 08/07/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 ESTELLE 08/07/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY