* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/07/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 46 50 52 54 55 53 47 39 29 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 46 50 52 54 55 53 47 39 29 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 46 51 53 53 50 46 43 42 40 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 2 6 13 17 19 20 27 47 56 60 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -1 0 -4 -2 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 245 285 294 262 294 301 289 258 238 242 240 244 246 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.2 27.0 25.3 20.0 12.5 12.8 11.3 12.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 142 139 137 128 127 110 83 72 72 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 122 117 116 111 110 96 77 70 70 67 66 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 8 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 59 59 56 56 55 51 52 58 63 65 65 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 6 6 7 6 6 8 11 11 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -83 -44 -34 -58 -65 -60 -91 -89 -38 -2 41 44 26 200 MB DIV 42 63 71 40 30 26 25 48 49 34 30 48 32 LAND (KM) 1075 1106 1087 1081 1081 990 719 566 444 238 789 1292 1321 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.8 30.7 31.5 32.2 34.4 37.6 40.3 42.8 46.4 51.5 54.9 56.7 LONG(DEG W) 66.6 66.2 65.7 65.3 64.9 63.9 62.0 59.3 55.5 50.0 42.9 36.3 30.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 9 8 10 15 18 18 23 31 30 22 19 HEAT CONTENT 25 17 13 10 8 11 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. -2. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 12. 14. 15. 13. 7. 0. -11. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/07/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/07/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/07/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)