* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/07/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 36 39 44 48 50 49 50 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 36 39 44 48 50 49 50 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 33 36 39 45 51 57 62 65 SHEAR (KT) 2 4 7 12 15 11 6 6 7 8 10 8 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 -3 -3 -1 -4 -3 -2 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 59 130 172 198 217 227 219 205 242 228 249 234 250 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 123 122 123 123 124 126 128 130 130 130 130 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 117 116 116 115 113 114 113 113 112 110 109 109 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 69 65 64 60 56 52 52 50 53 53 53 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 18 9 5 8 -3 -17 -23 -14 -14 -7 -11 -7 -28 200 MB DIV 52 28 17 3 2 -3 0 10 13 8 16 16 7 LAND (KM) 2119 2135 2163 2160 2167 2189 2134 1975 1851 1756 1699 1695 1742 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.6 19.7 20.6 21.4 22.9 23.9 24.5 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.5 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 37.5 38.5 39.5 40.6 41.7 44.0 46.0 47.8 49.2 50.3 51.0 51.2 50.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 14 13 13 11 10 8 6 4 2 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 10 10 11 16 19 17 18 17 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 19. 23. 25. 24. 25. 24. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/07/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/07/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/07/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)