* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP072010 08/07/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 50 50 49 45 41 36 32 27 23 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 50 50 49 45 41 36 32 27 23 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 48 48 47 44 41 37 33 29 26 22 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 11 10 9 13 13 14 19 18 20 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 4 9 3 5 SHEAR DIR 99 92 93 90 98 138 129 143 125 142 138 136 128 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 137 134 130 124 121 120 120 121 121 120 121 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 77 76 75 73 71 70 71 72 74 75 77 78 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 8 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 42 41 43 50 44 60 54 77 79 97 108 105 200 MB DIV 46 40 57 65 59 47 46 28 61 42 63 42 35 LAND (KM) 329 356 401 445 490 535 528 533 531 538 561 591 626 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.4 107.2 108.0 108.7 109.4 110.5 111.3 111.8 112.0 112.4 113.0 113.5 113.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 1 1 2 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 26 15 6 7 8 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 436 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -4. -9. -13. -18. -22. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 ESTELLE 08/07/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 ESTELLE 08/07/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY