* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/07/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 35 36 38 41 45 46 48 46 41 33 22 V (KT) LAND 35 34 35 36 38 41 45 46 48 46 41 33 22 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 34 35 37 39 41 42 41 39 38 38 37 SHEAR (KT) 6 2 7 15 17 18 14 21 27 41 48 49 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -3 -4 0 0 0 1 4 0 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 271 347 292 306 302 299 285 267 242 248 244 268 278 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.2 22.5 13.5 10.6 11.1 11.6 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 143 137 134 128 119 93 72 70 70 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 123 123 119 116 112 105 84 69 68 68 66 65 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 8 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 58 56 56 56 54 54 58 70 68 69 65 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 11 12 12 9 4 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -36 -49 -56 -48 -86 -110 -82 -32 6 -11 -47 -80 200 MB DIV 41 62 43 38 19 24 39 45 29 60 41 7 22 LAND (KM) 1110 1101 1090 1081 1085 877 665 532 207 513 1024 1426 1277 LAT (DEG N) 29.2 30.0 30.8 31.9 33.0 35.8 38.9 41.9 45.2 48.9 53.1 56.2 57.7 LONG(DEG W) 66.5 66.1 65.6 65.1 64.5 63.2 60.4 56.4 51.5 46.0 40.1 34.3 29.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 9 10 12 13 17 20 23 25 27 26 19 15 HEAT CONTENT 22 17 13 9 7 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 11. 6. -2. -13. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/07/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/07/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/07/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)