* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/07/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 42 45 46 46 45 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 42 45 46 46 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 36 40 46 51 55 59 SHEAR (KT) 4 9 13 17 18 13 14 15 14 12 17 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 -3 -4 0 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 167 170 196 212 225 214 202 186 214 200 251 235 259 SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 124 124 125 127 130 130 132 133 135 135 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 117 117 116 116 116 115 115 114 115 114 114 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 64 63 59 56 55 52 51 51 52 56 57 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 12 5 7 -2 -9 -15 -17 -13 -17 -12 -18 -23 -31 200 MB DIV 28 10 6 4 0 -7 2 13 11 13 20 8 10 LAND (KM) 2132 2139 2147 2134 2134 2144 1966 1819 1690 1609 1565 1574 1595 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.8 20.7 21.4 22.1 23.4 24.2 24.7 25.0 25.4 25.9 26.5 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 38.8 39.9 41.0 42.3 43.5 45.7 47.8 49.5 51.0 52.1 52.9 53.2 53.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 11 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 11 12 15 15 20 18 18 18 21 21 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 20. 20. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/07/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/07/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/07/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)