* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP072010 08/07/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 49 49 45 46 40 40 38 34 30 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 49 49 45 46 40 40 38 34 30 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 45 44 42 39 35 32 29 26 23 21 SHEAR (KT) 7 10 16 14 12 16 14 15 15 20 21 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -3 0 0 3 4 4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 73 76 86 95 120 114 133 122 109 104 96 92 73 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 133 131 128 123 121 120 122 122 122 120 119 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.5 -51.1 -50.5 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 76 74 71 71 69 71 70 74 74 75 71 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 8 9 9 9 12 11 15 17 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 46 46 52 59 53 60 66 78 77 89 99 107 99 200 MB DIV 61 79 83 68 37 56 29 64 35 45 48 35 22 LAND (KM) 352 397 448 487 527 541 530 539 558 585 628 662 691 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.2 108.0 108.7 109.3 109.9 110.9 111.7 112.2 112.6 113.1 113.8 114.3 114.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 2 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 15 6 8 9 6 3 1 1 2 1 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 450 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 7. 6. 11. 14. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 1. -5. -5. -7. -11. -15. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 ESTELLE 08/07/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 ESTELLE 08/07/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY