* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/07/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 42 46 50 53 53 52 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 42 46 50 53 53 52 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 31 34 39 45 52 57 61 62 SHEAR (KT) 7 11 15 15 13 7 7 8 7 14 10 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -3 -2 -1 -3 -4 0 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 176 189 195 202 204 194 174 183 234 256 253 263 275 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 124 124 125 128 129 129 130 129 129 127 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 116 115 115 115 114 112 110 109 109 108 107 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 63 58 58 56 54 51 50 52 51 51 51 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 13 12 0 -3 -7 -15 -5 -5 -9 -12 -16 -35 -40 200 MB DIV 22 15 12 6 4 16 10 20 28 15 8 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 2151 2149 2158 2159 2170 2098 1947 1843 1787 1788 1841 1925 2012 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.7 21.5 22.2 22.9 24.0 24.8 25.3 25.9 26.3 26.8 26.9 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 39.8 40.9 42.0 43.2 44.4 46.4 48.2 49.5 50.4 50.6 50.3 49.4 48.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 10 8 6 3 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 10 13 13 18 18 16 16 16 17 18 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 14 CX,CY: -8/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 28. 27. 26. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/07/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/07/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/07/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)