* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP072010 08/07/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 54 55 55 53 52 46 44 39 37 34 32 V (KT) LAND 50 53 54 55 55 53 52 46 44 39 37 34 32 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 53 53 50 46 42 39 36 33 30 28 SHEAR (KT) 6 14 16 15 12 15 13 17 20 26 23 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 1 0 1 2 3 4 2 SHEAR DIR 79 91 96 112 129 131 121 98 91 94 90 86 74 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 131 129 127 127 126 124 124 124 123 124 124 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 74 74 73 68 71 68 69 71 71 68 69 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 10 9 12 13 15 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 48 53 59 53 51 65 76 90 92 102 107 106 112 200 MB DIV 75 77 59 44 46 50 32 59 22 39 20 7 1 LAND (KM) 440 487 535 577 585 600 637 670 697 718 746 783 812 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.0 109.7 110.3 110.9 111.9 113.0 113.6 113.9 114.1 114.4 114.7 115.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 2 1 2 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 6 12 10 8 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 1. 0. 4. 5. 8. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. -4. -6. -11. -12. -16. -18. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 ESTELLE 08/07/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 ESTELLE 08/07/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY