* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/08/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 41 46 49 49 48 46 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 36 41 46 49 49 48 46 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 31 35 41 47 53 57 58 59 SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 11 14 11 10 12 13 23 27 29 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -3 -4 -5 -4 -5 -1 -6 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 202 207 213 208 198 187 185 217 222 230 228 240 239 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 124 125 125 128 129 129 130 131 131 133 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 114 113 114 113 114 113 112 111 111 111 113 113 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 56 51 53 51 52 54 56 56 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 13 -6 -13 -15 -14 -17 -13 -10 -13 -22 -28 -39 -46 200 MB DIV 0 -2 -3 -7 -5 3 26 14 29 0 5 19 3 LAND (KM) 2182 2176 2178 2189 2199 2050 1929 1828 1788 1785 1830 1895 1904 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.6 24.4 25.1 25.6 26.3 26.9 27.7 28.5 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 41.0 42.1 43.2 44.2 45.2 47.0 48.5 49.8 50.6 51.0 51.0 50.8 50.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 10 9 7 5 4 4 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 11 11 13 19 17 16 16 17 17 14 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 16 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 24. 23. 21. 19. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/08/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/08/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/08/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)