* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP072010 08/08/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 58 59 58 54 50 45 40 34 31 29 29 V (KT) LAND 55 58 58 59 58 54 50 45 40 34 31 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 57 57 55 50 45 40 36 32 29 27 26 SHEAR (KT) 11 15 18 18 18 17 24 21 24 25 24 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 -3 2 -3 3 1 3 2 5 0 SHEAR DIR 89 116 124 133 139 136 117 95 91 94 92 83 60 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 130 129 128 128 127 125 124 125 128 128 129 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.0 -51.2 -50.6 -51.1 -50.7 -51.2 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 70 69 70 65 68 67 67 67 68 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 8 8 7 9 10 12 13 13 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 51 55 53 57 60 68 82 73 80 82 93 88 105 200 MB DIV 73 49 45 44 77 55 45 34 46 22 21 1 17 LAND (KM) 487 537 587 612 617 654 702 742 770 782 807 815 814 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.2 16.8 16.6 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.7 110.3 110.9 111.4 112.5 113.5 114.2 114.5 114.4 114.2 114.0 113.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 1 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 8 9 8 3 8 8 9 11 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 412 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 4. 3. -1. -5. -10. -15. -21. -24. -26. -26. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 ESTELLE 08/08/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 ESTELLE 08/08/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY