* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/08/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 31 32 34 38 39 38 34 30 25 15 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 31 32 34 38 39 38 34 30 25 15 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 29 30 31 31 30 30 30 30 32 SHEAR (KT) 10 14 17 21 19 19 23 44 52 55 54 56 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 0 1 -1 2 -4 0 -2 -2 -7 -1 SHEAR DIR 297 309 312 323 326 319 261 243 248 250 263 268 279 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.4 27.6 24.4 15.0 10.8 10.7 11.6 12.2 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 137 134 130 135 106 76 71 69 68 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 117 116 114 112 119 97 73 70 67 66 64 64 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.8 -54.0 -55.3 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 50 52 51 55 56 59 63 73 77 72 66 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 2 4 7 8 9 9 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -40 -43 -70 -70 -70 -23 32 53 19 -24 -74 -90 200 MB DIV 21 19 19 10 15 40 28 47 45 44 29 23 9 LAND (KM) 1110 1073 1039 1002 973 789 503 190 448 1020 1405 1265 1020 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.0 31.6 32.7 33.7 36.4 40.5 45.1 50.2 53.8 56.0 57.4 57.5 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.7 65.7 65.6 65.5 64.3 60.7 55.0 47.3 40.5 34.6 29.2 25.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 9 11 12 20 28 34 32 24 18 14 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 7 6 4 6 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 7. 3. -2. -5. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 9. 8. 4. 0. -5. -15. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/08/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/08/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/08/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)