* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/08/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 47 51 54 53 52 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 47 51 54 53 52 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 43 51 58 62 64 64 SHEAR (KT) 11 12 11 8 8 8 6 9 12 11 20 25 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -4 -5 -6 -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 212 213 211 215 206 181 207 250 249 233 246 239 250 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 123 124 126 128 129 131 131 131 131 133 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 112 111 113 113 112 112 111 110 110 112 110 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 54 51 55 54 53 52 52 51 52 53 54 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -10 -15 -12 -16 -15 -12 -20 -26 -27 -42 -46 -61 200 MB DIV -8 1 -19 -12 -1 7 12 7 26 27 2 -4 2 LAND (KM) 2195 2200 2214 2216 2150 2008 1889 1805 1774 1810 1871 1961 1912 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.9 25.5 26.1 26.7 27.5 28.1 28.9 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 42.0 43.1 44.1 45.0 45.9 47.6 49.1 50.3 51.0 51.1 50.8 50.3 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 11 12 16 18 16 16 17 17 15 13 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 26. 29. 28. 27. 24. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/08/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/08/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/08/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)