* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP072010 08/08/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 53 50 45 38 30 24 18 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 53 50 45 38 30 24 18 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 55 53 51 46 40 35 31 27 23 21 20 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 17 17 15 21 23 23 26 20 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 0 2 2 3 2 0 4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 112 123 134 136 146 138 119 119 120 111 103 93 118 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 125 125 125 125 124 123 123 124 126 130 134 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 74 71 68 67 68 65 67 69 65 60 60 60 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 57 61 68 73 75 66 71 73 68 79 86 200 MB DIV 36 48 58 68 63 48 39 18 27 6 7 3 18 LAND (KM) 542 575 578 586 600 652 676 700 735 774 822 832 835 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.5 17.1 16.6 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.6 111.1 111.7 112.2 113.1 113.7 114.1 114.5 114.7 114.9 114.3 113.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 9 13 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 440 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -17. -25. -31. -37. -40. -41. -40. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 ESTELLE 08/08/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 ESTELLE 08/08/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY