* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/08/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 37 42 44 41 37 32 29 25 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 37 42 44 41 37 32 29 25 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 29 30 33 35 36 34 32 31 31 33 SHEAR (KT) 12 13 16 15 15 10 24 42 50 48 37 34 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -2 -2 0 3 3 4 6 5 4 0 SHEAR DIR 301 306 308 314 318 286 262 251 239 236 216 221 237 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.6 24.7 16.2 10.9 12.8 11.0 11.6 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 134 130 129 134 107 76 70 70 67 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 112 113 111 110 117 96 72 68 67 65 64 64 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -52.0 -53.0 -54.3 -55.5 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 54 52 56 57 57 62 63 68 67 64 64 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 2 2 2 5 7 8 7 6 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -49 -75 -70 -54 -57 -16 38 61 39 -6 -40 -67 200 MB DIV 24 19 5 11 30 28 50 40 38 31 51 19 43 LAND (KM) 1058 1038 1022 990 881 664 518 286 283 726 1114 1421 1284 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.0 32.6 33.8 34.9 37.7 40.7 44.2 48.3 51.4 53.5 55.2 56.0 LONG(DEG W) 65.6 65.5 65.4 65.3 65.2 63.6 59.5 54.6 49.1 43.8 38.9 34.3 29.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 9 12 13 18 24 27 25 21 17 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 5 7 13 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 9. 5. 0. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 14. 11. 7. 2. -1. -5. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/08/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/08/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/08/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)