* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/08/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 44 48 50 50 50 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 44 48 50 50 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 39 43 48 50 53 54 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 14 13 15 13 14 19 20 25 26 26 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -5 -5 -2 -6 0 -4 0 -3 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 204 193 197 197 193 180 210 211 215 209 225 218 247 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 125 128 128 130 131 133 134 134 133 134 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 113 114 114 114 113 114 113 113 113 114 112 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 51 50 50 50 50 48 49 52 53 51 51 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -12 -7 -11 -7 -6 -4 -7 -15 -22 -35 -37 -49 200 MB DIV 6 -13 -4 2 7 24 17 27 25 13 20 36 42 LAND (KM) 2193 2201 2164 2081 2001 1867 1759 1700 1696 1768 1859 1901 1756 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.4 23.9 24.3 24.7 25.2 25.7 26.3 27.0 27.9 28.7 29.7 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 43.7 44.7 45.7 46.7 47.6 49.2 50.6 51.6 52.1 51.9 51.4 50.6 49.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 15 18 19 17 16 16 19 18 14 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 25. 25. 23. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/08/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/08/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/08/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)