* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942010 08/08/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 35 36 38 39 41 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 29 31 33 34 36 38 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 28 28 30 31 34 37 42 SHEAR (KT) 27 22 24 24 22 13 16 15 19 15 8 9 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 1 4 3 4 5 1 3 -1 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 336 335 341 349 2 18 44 99 97 110 106 139 11 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.6 30.0 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 149 150 151 162 169 167 171 170 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 120 122 124 125 129 140 148 145 149 148 149 148 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 9 10 9 12 9 13 10 13 9 700-500 MB RH 56 56 53 49 49 49 50 53 52 51 53 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 5 6 7 7 8 6 5 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -12 0 -10 -24 -18 -20 -27 -16 -23 -24 -31 -29 -38 200 MB DIV -2 13 21 -5 -9 -3 -13 -11 -7 0 7 -14 0 LAND (KM) 260 246 231 180 129 -10 43 145 219 100 89 100 85 LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.7 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 78.6 78.7 78.8 79.3 79.8 81.2 83.2 85.2 87.3 89.2 90.9 92.1 93.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 5 5 8 9 9 9 8 6 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 46 47 51 29 0 3 31 53 52 33 14 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):195/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942010 INVEST 08/08/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942010 INVEST 08/08/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942010 INVEST 08/08/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)