* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP072010 08/08/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 45 44 39 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 45 44 39 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 48 46 43 41 36 31 27 23 20 17 15 DIS SHEAR (KT) 13 14 17 16 14 19 21 28 30 33 27 23 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 1 2 0 2 0 0 1 5 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 118 132 137 156 159 132 123 118 119 108 84 84 93 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 124 125 125 125 122 121 121 123 125 128 131 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -51.2 -50.6 -51.3 -51.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 71 67 65 66 65 63 66 63 63 62 61 56 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 61 65 74 70 74 70 70 69 70 57 67 70 200 MB DIV 58 64 75 60 51 54 35 43 26 38 -8 -1 -27 LAND (KM) 560 565 575 596 622 673 716 753 776 808 858 873 871 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.0 17.8 17.5 17.0 16.6 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.3 111.8 112.4 112.9 113.8 114.6 115.0 115.1 115.2 115.3 115.0 114.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 5 6 5 3 3 4 6 9 13 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 485 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -13. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -11. -17. -25. -32. -39. -43. -45. -42. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072010 ESTELLE 08/08/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072010 ESTELLE 08/08/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY