* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL042010 08/08/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 24 25 29 33 32 31 29 29 29 27 V (KT) LAND 25 23 23 24 25 29 33 32 31 29 29 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 21 21 21 21 22 22 21 21 22 26 DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 17 19 17 13 16 32 41 32 21 9 9 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -3 0 2 5 6 0 3 0 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 299 314 326 321 304 300 261 247 226 204 190 191 N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.3 27.6 25.8 20.1 13.2 10.9 14.5 12.9 13.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 128 129 134 116 84 71 69 72 70 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 110 108 110 115 103 77 68 67 68 68 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -53.0 -54.2 -54.9 -55.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 8 10 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 48 51 54 54 58 62 64 68 76 73 74 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 2 3 2 5 7 8 8 7 7 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -73 -78 -68 -74 -36 7 38 20 -4 -34 -88 N/A 200 MB DIV 10 6 11 25 31 42 37 26 43 24 42 14 N/A LAND (KM) 1003 997 963 871 786 584 437 171 523 969 1430 1097 N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.4 33.3 34.1 35.3 36.5 39.4 42.9 45.7 48.0 50.1 51.7 53.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.7 65.4 65.1 64.6 64.1 61.1 56.1 51.4 45.8 39.8 33.5 26.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 11 13 16 22 23 22 22 22 22 22 N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 9 13 12 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 9. 5. 3. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 0. 4. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 2. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042010 COLIN 08/08/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042010 COLIN 08/08/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042010 COLIN 08/08/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)