* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 08/08/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 37 40 41 40 43 46 48 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 33 37 40 41 40 43 46 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 36 38 40 43 48 54 SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 14 14 15 17 24 29 28 10 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -4 -3 -5 -2 -2 -4 -1 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 216 218 212 211 192 212 194 211 200 216 207 19 32 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 129 130 131 133 136 138 139 139 139 137 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 116 117 117 118 119 120 120 119 119 120 114 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 8 700-500 MB RH 49 51 49 49 48 47 48 48 46 45 39 45 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -6 -10 -8 -7 -4 -5 -17 -28 -36 -42 -9 45 200 MB DIV -10 -7 -2 -3 18 16 29 31 6 -9 2 18 38 LAND (KM) 2133 2099 2015 1924 1836 1692 1572 1488 1449 1454 1496 1623 1396 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.1 24.6 25.2 25.9 26.7 27.6 28.8 30.6 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 45.0 46.1 47.1 48.1 49.1 50.8 52.4 53.8 54.9 55.7 56.5 56.9 55.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 8 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 19 19 20 20 21 22 21 23 23 13 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -2. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 16. 15. 18. 21. 23. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 08/08/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 08/08/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 08/08/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)